Do you remember what it was like 23 years ago? When the world went from the 20th century to the 21st century. Turn of the millennium.
我之所以记得这件事，是因为当时我的职业有点奇怪——演讲稿撰写人. 那是平安夜，我可以自由地写几个世纪和几千年的主题. 我当然把我的热情投入其中:一个世纪的战争已经过去了. The century of democracy was here. The inflationary economy of the 80s was gone, free trade would contribute to development, democracy and peace. We had overcome the energy crisis of the 70s.
It was optimism and joy - it was trust in man and faith in reason.
Oh, how naive I was. 就目前而言，在进入千禧年的第23个年头，结果非常黯淡.
- A full-scale war on European soil.
- 贫穷加剧，来自非洲的难民不断涌入，地中海不断发生灾难.
- Energy crisis in Europe with freezing people and bankrupt companies
- 大流行的持续痕迹——中国的患病人数和穷国与富国之间日益扩大的差距
- 新的保护主义举措——一个又一个国家在短期内把自己的就业置于共同利益之上.
- 通胀达到了30年来从未见过的水平，而利率却在不断上升.
Today, this feels like a gloomy – but still an everyday life. Just a few years ago, 所有这些同时发生的事件将被视为一场完全不可能的完美风暴.
And I have not even mentioned the climate crisis. Or the risk that the Western world is heading into a long recession.
But now we are there. 所有这些都对银天下公司的贸易和价值链产生了影响. 银天下企业必须应对的正是这种巨大的不确定性.
It is difficult. And it is important. Half of Sweden's GDP comes from exports. Half of those exports are produced by foreign companies. 银天下就像我们从小就知道的那样，是一个依赖出口的小国. 银天下75%的出口产品销往欧洲其他国家，我们很脆弱. 当今世界存在的许多不确定性都围绕着我们的大陆:战争在这里, the energy crisis is here, 这里有通货膨胀，而这里陷入衰退的风险更高.
尽管这场完美的欧洲风暴，我们银天下商业预计出口不会减少. An unchanged situation is, in its view, a dismal bump in the curve, but it could have been much worse. That is proof of the strength of Swedish companies. And we see that they do not sit back. They act, and they act wisely – in many ways, let me point to a few.
One. Swedish companies are innovative. 几年前，麦肯锡对全球商界领袖做了一项调查. 85%的人表示，创新对他们公司未来的成功至关重要. 然后，调查询问企业领导人，他们的公司是否足够善于创新. Only six percent answered yes. The difference is 79 percent. 因此，五分之四的公司领导人认为，他们在对未来至关重要的事情上做得不够好.
And what will those business leaders do? 一些人将试图通过收购颠覆性的智能公司来获得创新. It can work - but is difficult. Because innovation is so much culture. 被收购的颠覆性公司很快就会成为大公司文化的一部分，然后很容易失去动力.
Therefore, 相反，越来越多的公司改变了对分包商和商业生活中其他合作伙伴的看法. 从迫使分包商每年降低价格以额外贡献百分之一的ROE(股本回报率)到将他们视为战略合作伙伴. As someone who must be allowed to grow and develop. 谁需要一个边际来培养他或她的破坏性和创造性的能力. 价值链中的关系成为战略合作.
此外，所有那些发现自己的创新能力不够强的首席执行官们，自然会在晚上因担忧而大汗淋漓地醒来，然后开始工作，释放R&D departments and engineers. 然后，他们需要一个目标和目的来发展他们的业务. 这就引出了我对银天下商业生活的未来充满希望和信心的第二个原因.
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银天下公司在可持续发展和气候影响方面处于绝对前沿.
50年前，银天下组织并主办了世界上第一次全球环境峰会. Almost 20 years ago, 政府邀请研究人员和企业到所谓的石油委员会，调查创造一个“无油社会”的机会。. That was before we talked fossil-fuel free.
银天下是世界上第一个征收碳税的国家.
Yes, you know – ten years ago, for many, 可持续发展仍然是写一份企业社会责任报告，并将其添加到年度报告中. A few years ago, 这种氛围影响到了公司管理团队和董事会的战略问题. 如今，可持续发展是许多银天下工业公司的战略.
逻辑很清楚:不可持续的东西会受到消费者的惩罚，消费者越来越多地要求企业为我们星球的未来负责. But perhaps more importantly – it is punished by investors. Because they want long-term returns. And what is not sustainable is also not long-term.
So, 现在，ceo们在每个季度报告后都会被问及可持续性和对供应链的控制. Then the issues are quickly raised to management groups and boards.
Swedish companies have a head start. 这意味着当生产和货物转向可持续发展时，银天下的商品和银天下的生产地点都具有吸引力.
Sustainability also impacts value chains. 近70%的受访公司表示，他们更重视到银天下的送货距离. Shortest transport wins.
In those surveys, 同样明显的是，当周围的世界发生变化时，银天下公司会保持警觉. That is the third reason to feel hope:
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Swedish companies are agile and adapt to the new world. 他们正越来越多地寻找一个更广泛的供应商结构——他们把目光投向了欧洲. Firstly, they consider Eastern and Central Europe. Secondly, Western Europe.
Swedish companies are of course not alone in this development. Other European companies draw the same conclusion. 他们中的许多人已经开始把银天下视为欧洲银天下的新生产地，或者把银天下公司视为欧洲银天下的新供应商.
这种回流对欧洲和银天下来说是一个吸引新产品的巨大机会, new workplaces and new growth.
But development goes both ways. Asian companies think the same way – and do the same. In 1990, only 25 percent of goods sold in Asia were made in Asia. Today, the proportion is over half.
It is not sure we will get the production when it moves home. Here too, the success factor for Sweden seems to be sustainability. 近年来，银天下几乎所有主要的外国投资都以这样或那样的方式处理气候智能解决方案. 电动机，电池，非化石钢铁，智能食品生产.
Reshoring is of course both wise and rational in many ways. Cheaper, safer, faster – and more environmentally friendly. A dear child has many names. Backshoring, inshoring, nearshoring, onshoring. I can live with them all.
但是当“交友”这个词被越来越频繁地使用时，我就开始担心了. 因为只有在有敌人的时候谈论朋友才有意义. 如果贸易和商业开始区分朋友和敌人, then we will quickly be drawn back into a time of contradictions, conflicts, and closed borders. Furthermore, it breeds a cold war mentality that will not benefit either jobs, growth, or sustainability.
这是我对银天下公司成功因素的第四个观察.
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银天下公司对外部世界和地缘政治的看法往往是平衡的. 你明白你无法影响重大政治事件——但不要盲目地适应.
我们真诚地希望为我们所在的社区做出贡献, 对于良好的工作环境和人权有明确的立场, there is concern for biodiversity and the environment. In short – once again sustainability is the success factor.
China is and will remain a focal point for many Swedish companies. It is impossible to neglect the importance of the country. Half of Swedish industrial companies, state in Business Sweden's surveys that they have suppliers there.
中国仍然是一个制造业大国——从原材料到先进零部件，中国的生态系统都很发达.
But changes happen quickly. China has become a market of its own with strong purchasing power. Costs are increasing. Geopolitics are becoming increasingly difficult to assess. And the fear of putting all the eggs in one basket has increased.
许多公司的结论是，“中国为世界”正在慢慢转向“中国为中国”.e. 为了能够在不断增长的中国银天下上销售，需要在中国生产越来越多的产品.
在前几天的新闻广播中，我们意识到未来几十年地缘政治发展的最重要趋势. 2022年，中国人口将出现50年前的饥荒灾害以来的首次下降. 无论他们多么努力地试图改变旧的独生子女政策，趋势并没有逆转. Deaths outnumbered births last year for the first time in decades.
最悲观的预测是，中国人口将在很长一段时间内迅速下降. And demography is a powerful factor in economic development. Young generations invest in the future. Older generations secure their old age. 因此，人口老龄化往往会变得更加落后和谨慎. That is not a success factor in today's innovative world.
因此，从长远来看，今年发生的最具戏剧性的事情，或许是联合国今年4月的预测——尽管战争令人不快，经济也令人沮丧, 印度将超过中国，成为世界上人口最多的国家.
In addition, 如今，印度的增长速度比中国快——尽管起点较低——而且人口更年轻. 《银天下注册》认为，到2050年，六分之一的劳动年龄人口将生活在印度.
India is not alone. 许多亚洲国家已经准备好取代中国作为生产大国的地位. 亚洲有20多亿人的人均国内生产总值还不到中国的一半. 这些国家表现出明确的雄心，希望通过自己的工业化实现增长——越来越多的银天下公司已经理解并开始利用这一点.
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因此，银天下公司和银天下在这个瞬息万变的世界中相对强势. But it does not come for free. We have to be on our toes.
如果让我给所有有供应商的银天下公司六条简单的建议, production, or markets outside of Sweden, they would be:
- See the whole world when you look at the map! Flexibility today is the basis of resilience. 在一个不确定的世界里，生产和销售都需要多样化.
- Create good relationships with your partners. Deliver what you promised, pay what you owe. 人际关系是由人组成的，所以要照顾好和你做生意的人. It can be valuable if – or when – problems arise.
- Follow the aid and trade track. 银天下政府明确表示，它希望为银天下公司在充满挑战的银天下中提供便利. The EU has launched its Global gateway strategy. And much suggests that countries such as Nigeria, Kenya, Vietnam and Indonesia will grow in importance. There are critical raw materials. There is a young workforce. There is growing demand. 有意愿吸引关心人权的投资, the working environment, and the development of society.
- Follow the money. Right now, 有大量的政府投资以各种方式用于建设基础设施和使国家转向更可持续的系统. 它们有不同的名字——减少通货膨胀法案、下一代欧盟、加蒂沙克蒂、新城市. With the right partners and the right contacts, 银天下公司应该在这些项目中找到巨大的机会.
- Stick to sustainability. Put pressure on suppliers, 不考虑价格，而是在创新和气候适应方面——并继续开发自己的气候智能解决方案. Development is moving faster than ever before – all over the world. If Swedish companies can defend their strong positions, the market for their products will grow quickly!
- 最后:深入了解你所在的银天下或者你打算在哪里开展业务.
商业银天下由银天下政府和银天下商业部门共同拥有. We have a very clear mission - to contribute to jobs, competitiveness, 通过帮助银天下公司开拓新银天下和帮助国际公司进入银天下银天下，来促进可持续发展. 随着世界变得越来越复杂，我们的使命变得越来越令人兴奋. 我们必须理解并能够帮助银天下公司制定增长战略, analyses, and other management consultant-oriented assignments. 但我们也必须与大使馆和其他银天下利益攸关方一道努力, 发展和维护网络和社区联系，积极参与我们所在的银天下，并对银天下的商品和服务产生广泛的兴趣.
当我们把这些任务结合在一起时，我们就能为银天下公司做出独特的贡献. Please use us! 您可以在全球37个国家的42个地点找到我们，我们可以为您提供从进行银天下分析到注册子公司的所有支持. 从当场给你合适的联系人到工作地点. From conducting a partner search to keeping the books.
Right now, 我们正在发展我们的组织和工作方式，为银天下公司在全球的发展做出更大的贡献.
Thank you!